Amid extraordinary scenes of vandalism and havoc as youthful protesters over-ran Hong Kong’s parliament constructing on Monday night, two putting pictures stood out.
One was the hanging of a colonial-era Hong Kong flag on the speaker’s lectern in the primary chamber of the legislative council — a extremely provocative transfer assured to boil the blood of China’s leaders.
The opposite was the orderly and deliberate retreat by the police from their defence of the constructing, a calculated determination that allowed excited younger protesters with no clear targets to run amok.
It’s inconceivable that the police deserted their posts with out the consent of Hong Kong’s embattled chief govt, Carrie Lam. It’s also not possible she made that call with out first in search of Beijing’s permission.
So if the retreat was certainly a tactical one which intentionally allowed demonstrators to wreak havoc within the metropolis’s symbolic coronary heart, what was the purpose?
Ms Lam, presumably with Beijing’s backing, seems to be playing that the scenes of violence and mindless destruction will flip the vast majority of Hong Kong’s inhabitants in opposition to the younger activists, whose principal demand now could be for the chief govt to resign.
The chaotic scenes and intensive property harm can also be used to justify mass arrests of the younger demonstrators who took half.
Hong Kong stays a deeply conservative society and public assist for previous protest actions, together with the so-called Umbrella Revolution in 2014, have dwindled as their inconvenience to each day lives has elevated.
Ms Lam and her backers could have been emboldened by a counter-protest on Sunday at which tens of 1000’s of principally older demonstrators marched by central Hong Kong to indicate their assist for the police and her authorities.
That march was far smaller than the black-shirted demonstrations which have swept by the town demanding Ms Lam’s resignation and the entire repeal of laws that might permit folks within the territory to be extradited to mainland China.
However it bolstered the assertion by Beijing and Ms Lam “silent majority” in Hong Kong helps her and loves the motherland.
Whereas an estimated 550,000 marched peacefully in opposition to her authorities on Monday, the wrecking of parliament will strengthen her narrative that protesters are a small group of hooligans who’ve been manipulated by “hostile international forces” in search of to hurt China’s pursuits.
However Ms Lam and Beijing seem to have opted for a high-risk technique.
The chief govt has confirmed herself to be extremely tone deaf in the case of heeding the desire of the folks and there’s no assure that the deplorable scenes of vandalism will flip the broader public in opposition to the protests.
Already perceived as a lame duck, permitting the town’s parliament to be overrun solely strengthens the notion of her weak spot.
Unlikely as it’s, if Ms Lam acted on Monday with out Beijing’s permission, it might provoke China’s hardline leaders to intervene extra forcefully, even perhaps by deploying Chinese language troops within the metropolis for the primary time.
The relative ease with which the unorganised youths occupied the legislative constructing earlier than police calmly reclaimed it a number of hours later might really embolden the motion to hunt a extra extended occupation.
If mass arrests come subsequent it can undoubtedly radicalise lots of the metropolis’s youth and result in nonetheless extra unrest and probably a worsening cycle of violence.
Because the turmoil continues in one of many world’s main monetary centres, Ms Lam and her bosses in Beijing have as soon as once more opted for short-term tactical benefit with no clear concept of the broader strategic goal.